Relative performance of judgmental methods for forecasting the success of megaprojects

Forecasting the success of megaprojects, such as Olympic Games or space exploration missions, is a very difficult but important task, due to their complexity and large capital investment they require. Typically, megaproject stakeholders do not employ formal forecasting methods, instead rely on impact assessments and/or cost–benefit analysis; however, these tools necessarily include forecasts, there no accountability. This study evaluates effectiveness judgmental methods for successfully accomplishment specific objectives, where measure collective objectives. We compare performances three used by group 69 semi-experts: unaided judgement (UJ), semi-structured analogies (s-SA), interaction groups (IG). The empirical evidence reveals that use s-SA leads accuracy improvements relative UJ. These are amplified further when we introduce pooling through teamwork in IG.